By Osita Chidoka
2015 election data at a glance.
Registered Voters: 67,422,005
Voter turnout: 31,746,490
Percentage turnout: 42%
Valid Votes: 28,587,564
Invalid Votes: 3,158,926
APC Vote Share: 15,424,921
PDP Vote Share: 12,853,162
APC Winning Margin: 2,571,759
In 2015, voters countrywide cast 8,103,011 votes with “No PVC, No Biometrics.” In plain words, these votes were “manufactured” as there were no records of PVC validation with the Card Reader; there was also logically no match of the biometric data. Interestingly 60% of the 8.1M votes with “No PVC, No biometrics” were cast in the South-East and South-South, while 40% of the “No PVC, No Biometrics” were in the other four zones.
Major culprits of “No PVC, No Biometrics” were Rivers State 1.3M, Delta 782K, Anambra 616k, Imo 565K, Akwa Ibom 551K, and Enugu 338K. If we deduct the “No PVC, No Biometric” votes from the South-East and South-South, the voter turnout for SE will fall from 36% to 23% (2019: 25%), and the South-South will decrease from 55% to 33% (2019: 29%)
Intriguingly, voters across the country cast 13,536,311 votes “with PVC but no Biometrics”; however, 74% of the PVC no Biometric ballots were cast in the North West, North-East and North-Central. That is 9.9M votes with PVC no biometrics in the three zones of the North, while the Southern zones accounted for 3.5M (26%) such votes.
The major culprits of “PVC without biometrics” were Kano 1.3M, Katsina 1M, and Kaduna 800k. In plain words, the high PVC collection rate, mainly by proxy, in the North in 2015 created room for multiple and underage voting using PVCs without biometric matching. If you deduct “No PVC, No Biometrics” and “PVC with No Biometrics,” voter turnout in the North-East drops from 41% to 26%. North-West drops from 48% to 13.5% and North-Central from 40% to 30%.
Let’s play with the numbers here. We shall try some “what ifs.” Invalid votes greater than APC winning margin; if the 2018 Electoral Act as amended were in force in 2015, there would have been a run-off election as the invalid votes of 3.1M were more than the APC winning margin of 2.5M votes.
If only votes with PVC and Biometrics were used in the 2015 election total valid votes would have been 10.1M votes. Share of the compliant vote by geo-political zone were as follows:
South-East 647,756 (6.40%)
South-South 1,233,671 (12.20%)
North-East 1,380,519 (13.65%)
North-Central 1,716,570 (16.98%)
North-West 2,366,978 (23.41%)
South-West 2,761,674 (27.32%)
The South-West would have had the highest vote share using the fully compliant votes, followed by the North-West and North-Central. The implication for 2023 is that the introduction of the BVAS would reduce the total vote cast as only fully compliant votes will be valid. Proxy voting, over-voting and collation error should be minimal if not eradicated.
The key to determining the election is voter turnout. Staying away is not an option if you want to impact the country’s future. Register, Vote, and take a snapshot of the election result in your polling unit, log on to INEC Result Viewing Portal and cross-check.
If you want to work with us to mobilise Nigerian youths to use their voting power to vote for any candidate of their choice and help craft the minimum qualities of elected officers and aggregate the demands of Nigerian youths, join UnlockNaija Movement: www.unlocknaija.com/registration.
Over the coming weeks, we will work together to take the spirit of the Naija nation to Nigeria.
Osita Chidoka is a former Corps Marshal and Chief Executive of Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) and past Minister of Aviation in Nigeria.
