Our Reporter, New York
A Kenyan-based political analyst, Declan Galvin, has warned leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) of the potential of the situation in Niger Republic to destabilise the sub-region if not properly dealt with. The American warned during an exclusive interview with Rudolf Okonkwo in 90MinutesAfrica.
The former editor of Sahara Reporters said that from a security point of view, West Africa is already doing badly and that adding the current situation in Niger into the mix risks destabilising the entire sub-region.
“We have serious problems in Burkina Faso, in Mali and Nigeria is also problematic.”
“So I think that if the Niger situation is not handled, West Africa risks being destabilised,” the risk management professional said.
Since the military coup overthrew the elected government of Mohammed Bazoum in Niger last month, tension has been rising between the country and ECOWAS. The regional body, under the chairmanship of Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has imposed stringent economic and diplomatic sanctions against the military government and threatened to deploy force against the country to restore the democratic order if the putschists fail to hand over power back to the elected government of Mohammed Bazoum. These actions have divided the region with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea declaring support for the Nigerien coup leaders and vowing to intervene militarily on the side of Niger if ECOWAS deploys military force against the country.
But the political analyst believes that the coup leaders in Niger and their backers are “more barks than bite,” arguing that it is important for ECOWAS to deal with the situation. He advocated for a Nigerian military deployment with an ECOWAS mandate as the most viable approach to resolving the impasse.
“I think that a Nigeria secondment to ECOWAS, which is financed properly and with a proper mission mandate, would be more effective than the alternative of a multilateral deployment.”
“A multilateral deployment would be a poor idea which would probably not work,” he argued.
He cited the example of what happened in the Gambia in 2016 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing the presidential election to the then-opposition candidate, Adama Barrow. He said ECOWAS was able, through the Senegalese forces, to force Yahya Jammeh to leave power.
“When Senegal began to move its forces closer to the Gambia border, they basically issued Yahya Jamie an ultimatum. That’s what made him leave more than anything else. So I think a similar situation could play out in Niger, but it has to be well managed because it is more complex,” the political analyst reiterated.
