By Confidence McHarry
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 20 January 2026 that marked what could possibly be the most stark admission from a Western leader in decades. He described the rules-based international order as a fading fiction which powerful states applied selectively. In light of rising Sino-American protectionism, great powers now treat economic ties as tools of coercion through tariffs and supply-chain pressure. Carney called this shift a rupture rather than a transition, from where middle powers such as Canada must build domestic strength and form flexible coalitions to avoid subordination. He urged an end to pretence about mutual benefits in global integration since compliance no longer ensures safety.
This message, delivered to an elite audience amid United States threats over Greenland, indicates that Western leaders acknowledge the collapse of the old system.
Therefore, African states must view such declarations through a lens shaped by centuries of unequal encounters with Europe and North America. By virtue of the late 19th-century Berlin Conference, colonial powers drew borders and extracted resources under the guise of civilising missions, which mirrored today’s rhetoric of universal rules. Post-independence institutions like the World Trade Organisation enforced trade terms that kept raw commodity exports cheap while protecting Western manufactures. Structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s and 1990s forced privatisation and austerity on countries like Nigeria and Ghana as conditions for loans, where public services deteriorated without reciprocal openings in Northern markets. International law often ignores Western interventions in Africa while condemning similar actions elsewhere. Carney’s confession that the order was “partially false” with asymmetric enforcement echoes long-standing criticisms from African scholars and leaders who saw it as a mechanism to maintain an unfair, dominant advantage rather than equality in the system.
This rupture alters West Africa’s policy landscape in energy, exports, industry and security. Energy forms the core of many states. Nigeria holds Africa’s largest oil reserves alongside growing gas fields in Senegal and Mauritania. Western-led climate frameworks pushed decarbonisation with promises of just transition funds, which arrived sparingly. A fading rules-based system means unilateral measures, such as the European carbon border adjustment mechanism, could impose costs on fossil fuel exports without negotiated offsets. Washington’s withdrawal from multilateral climate commitments under its current administration reduces pressure but also dries up financing for renewables. West African governments will prioritise deals that secure immediate revenue, such as Chinese investments in Nigerian refineries or Qatari gas partnerships similar to Canada’s recent moves. Domestic refining capacity in Nigeria is expanding to cut import dependence, from which Dangote’s facility already processes local crude at scale.
Further, exports face direct risks from great power coercion. Cocoa dominates Ghana and the Ivory Coast’s earnings, which flow mainly to European processors. Oil and mineral production from Nigeria and Sierra Leone follows similar patterns. If protectionism rises as Carney warns, tariffs could slash revenues overnight, as seen in past United States steel duties that hit indirect suppliers. West African states have to insulate themselves and prevent European shock at this collapse by deepening intra-regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area, from which processed goods move tariff-free across borders. Agreements with India and Turkey gain traction for market diversification, as these partners demand fewer governance conditions attached to Western aid, from whose taps such largesse has dried up.
Industrial policy has to gain urgency in this environment. Leaders in Senegal and Ghana restrict raw mineral exports to force local value addition, such as bauxite smelting or lithium processing. The old order’s trade rules often blocked such measures through investor-state disputes, from where companies sued governments over profit losses. With those constraints weakening, states impose bolder requirements on foreign firms. Nigeria’s local content laws in oil services extend to manufacturing zones, which attract assembly plants for electronics and vehicles. This approach builds resilience against external shocks as supply chains shorten within Africa.
Also, security policy shifts most dramatically. In the current geopolitical reality, the French and largely Western security presence has been eroded, while rising and established eastern powers have replaced them as security partners for the region. Jihadist groups expand into coastal states like Benin and Togo, from where maritime threats compound Gulf of Guinea piracy. However, Carney’s call for middle-power coalitions offers little direct inclusion for West Africa, since Canada focuses on Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Regional bodies like ECOWAS strengthen joint forces as seen in recent deployments against coups. Partnerships with Russia and Turkey fill gaps through equipment supplies and training without heavy political strings. Forward movements point to balanced alignments in which West Africa engages BRICS mechanisms for infrastructure loans alongside selective Western counterterrorism support.
Carney’s proclamation validates African assertions that the rules-based order primarily served Northern interests. West African states stand to gain sovereignty in policy choices free from enforced liberalisation. Risks persist if middle powers form exclusive clubs that further sideline the continent. Leaders in Abuja, Accra and Dakar will have to accelerate regional integration and pragmatic engagements across divides. Energy sales fund industrial bases from where exports diversify, and security rests on collective African capabilities.
This path demands clear-eyed decisions akin to Carney’s knee-jerk realism, adapted to local realities.
MacHarry is a senior security analyst at SBM Intelligence.
